Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been ongoing for 16 months now. Initially, Vladimir Putin expected a swift victory, but ever since the attack began, they have been suffering setbacks one after the other.
The sanctions on them have crippled the country’s resources, and the nation’s Military might have also fallen short of the Ukrainian powers.
The Russian Military has crumbled for various reasons- shortage of abled fighting men, lack of ammunition and weapons, rising tensions between citizens and the state due to harsh recruitment conditions, etc. As a result, Vladimir Putin had to bring in the Wagner group, founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, to help with the war.
However, in a stunning turn of events, word of a civil war between Russia’s military leaders and the Wagner group has surfaced. But this civil war is becoming a possible coup because the head of the private militia group has vowed to punish the country’s military leaders. At the same time, the Kremlin has accused Prigozhin and his fighters of mutiny. So what exactly is going on in Russia?
The Yevgeny Prigozhin-led Wagner group, a private military organization, has launched an armed rebellion against the Russian government, especially the top Defence leaders. They are doing this coup to protest against the military leaders’ incompetence in the Ukraine war and for failing to supply the fighters with enough ammo on the battlefield. Russia has launched an investigation into the Wagner group and termed their actions treasonous.
Why Is Wagner Attacking Russia?
The internal conflict between Russia and the private mercenary military group Wagner has drawn international attention amid their invasion of Ukraine. The Wagner group was founded in 2014 by Yevgeny Prigozhin and commended 50,000 mercenaries at its height. So what kind of recruits formed this militia? Many of Wagner’s forces consisted of ex-prisoners.
But the group isn’t a legally recognized entity. In fact, they have been accused of human rights violations. The US even sees them as a criminal organization. However, they have been instrumental in carrying out Russia’s will on battlefields in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America while giving Putin plausible deniability regarding their involvement.
The Wagner group has been sanctioned by Canada, Australia, the UK, Japan, and the EU due to the war. So why have relations between Putin/ Russia and the Wagner group gone south? The main reason is reported to be the country’s failure to supply the Wagner troops with ammunition. Prigozhin complained that he had to tell his men to retreat from Bakhmut because of this issue.
Fighters, allegedly from the Wagner group, even recorded a video cursing General Valery Gerasimov, the Russian Military’s general staff head, and targeted him for failing to supply ammunition. Prigozhin himself has singled out Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu for being incompetent.
The Wagner’s head has also alleged that Shoigu launched a rocket attack on the field camps of his men even though his men were fighting for Russia. He has also questioned the Kremlin’s version/ justification of Russia invading Ukraine.
To add to this, he even claimed that his military group captured Donetsk in Ukraine in January, but the Russian Defence Ministry was not attributing this victory to them. Yevgeny has stated in a video that his troops will go after Shoigu in an armed rebellion.
He requested the Russian army to stay out of the matter. Putin has also retaliated by calling Prigozhin and the Wagner group’s action treasonous and promising harsh punishment. The country’s security services have also begun a criminal investigation into the mercenary group for launching the mutiny.
Russia’s Defence Ministry also denied Yevgeny’s allegations of the rocket attack.
How Big Is the Wagner Group?
The Wagner group is a private mercenary organization led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. It began in 2014 with allegedly only 100 fighters. Over time it grew to include 50,000 of them. Most of them are reportedly ex-prisoners in Russia.
Russian Coup Explained
The current Russian coup is between the Wagner private military organization and the Russian government. Previously, the Wagner group was an ally of Vladimir Putin and his government. They unofficially carried out Russia’s will on various battlefields worldwide while simultaneously giving Putin plausible deniability over his country’s intervention regarding such matters.
Even though the organization has been criticized and sanctioned for violating human rights, Russia kept them close as a secret trump card. They joined the Russian Military in the war against Ukraine as well. But fractures have been formed in the fragile allyship between the two parties, and Wagner is ready to capture Russia’s top military leader in an armed rebellion.
The head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has accused the top brass of the Russian Military of not giving his team enough credit for January’s Donetsk capture. However, his main point of contempt for the Russian leadership is their failure to provide his troops with adequate ammunition.
He has also expressed that prominent personalities like Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Russian Military’s general staff head General Valery Gerasimov are incompetent leaders. Prigozhin has also alleged that his troops came under rocket attack by the state they were fighting for.
The country’s leaders have denied it all and have instead launched an investigation into the group for trying to carry out a coup. It now remains to be seen how the situation progresses.
What are your thoughts on this surprise attempted coup by the Wagner group in Russia?
Could this turn the tide for Ukraine? How can Ukraine take advantage of it? Will this be the final death knell for Russia?
Let us know in the comments below.
